AI-driven power demand is fueling a surge in U.S. nuclear, geothermal, and grid-upgrade investment, with Microsoft and Meta locking long-term nuclear PPAs and nearly 25% of H1 climate tech VC flowing to nuclear startups like TerraPower. Geothermal developers such as Ormat gain from faster permitting and extended tax credits, while $22B in solar and wind projects are canceled under Trump-era rollbacks. Immigration crackdowns deepen the divide, with Vinod Khosla warning of lasting climate tech brain drain to Europe, India, and Canada as skilled workers exit. The result: AI-aligned baseload clean power thrives on policy tailwinds, while intermittent renewables and climate R&D face erosion from subsidy cuts and talent flight, widening fractures in the U.S. energy transition.
Strategic Moves | Capital flows in energy, infrastructure, and policy
Energy Systems & Grid Reliability
- bp and JERA launch JERA Nex bp with 13GW offshore wind capacity across nine countries, backed by up to $5.8B in capital through 2030, creating one of the largest global operators to secure multi-region renewable power supply.
- Energy Vault secures $300M preferred equity from a major infrastructure fund to launch Asset Vault, consolidating 3GW of BESS pipeline and enabling $1B+ in capex for 1.5GW of storage in the U.S., Europe, and Australia, locking in multi-year uptime for grids facing AI-driven demand surges.
Resilient Infrastructure & Materials
- Amazon signs a supply deal for Brimstone’s low-carbon cement, reserving annual volumes from its new plant after tests confirmed ASTM-compliant performance, cutting up to 900 kg CO₂ per ton versus conventional cement to lower the carbon footprint of Amazon’s global building portfolio.
- Nest commits $750M to BTG Pactual Timberland Investment Group, managing 2.6M acres across the Americas, to secure sustainable timber supply, diversify pension assets, and preserve forest ecosystems for long-term portfolio resilience.
- Mars commits $5M over five years to its Protect the Peanut Plan, building on $10M in prior genomic research that mapped 2.5B DNA base pairs, to develop drought- and disease-resistant peanut varieties boosting yields up to 30%, securing supply for its 300M lb/year demand and strengthening global food security.
Resilience Finance & Policy
- Meta pilots mass timber in data center construction to replace steel and concrete, cutting embodied carbon by ~41%, speeding build times, and ensuring sustainable forestry sourcing to meet its 2030 net zero goal while expanding AI infrastructure.
- Standard Chartered signs a 5-year deal with Brazil’s Acre state to market up to 5M jurisdictional forest carbon credits in 2026, directing 72% of revenues to indigenous and local communities for sustainable land use, creating a scalable deforestation-prevention finance model.
- China’s PBOC, NFRA, and CSRC unify bond and loan rules under a single Green Finance Endorsed Project Catalogue effective October 2025, adding sectors from passenger rail to methane abatement and green consumption, cutting reporting costs and expanding financing access for industrial decarbonization.
- BBVA channels €63B into sustainable finance in H1 2025, up 48% year-over-year, with 76% funding climate and natural capital projects and 24% backing social initiatives, advancing its €700B 2025-2029 goal to scale low-carbon and inclusive infrastructure.
Omer Agadi, Analyst, Firstime Ventures
